Projecting impacts of climate change on hydrological conditions and biotic responses in a chalk valley riparian wetland

Projected changes in climate are likely to substantially impact wetland hydrological conditions that will in turn have implications for wetland ecology. Assessing ecohydrological impacts of climate change requires models that can accurately simulate water levels at the fine-scale resolution to which species and communities respond. Hydrological conditions within the Lambourn Observatory at Boxford, Berkshire, UK were simulated using the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE, calibrated to contemporary surface and groundwater levels. The site is a 10 ha lowland riparian wetland where complex geological conditions and channel management exert strong influences on the hydrological regime. Projected changes in precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, channel discharge and groundwater level were derived from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of climate models for the 2080s under different scenarios. Hydrological impacts of climate change differ through the wetland over short distances depending on the degree of groundwater/surface-water interaction. Discrete areas of groundwater upwelling are associated with an exaggerated response of water levels to climate change compared to non-upwelling areas. These are coincident with regions where a weathered chalk layer, which otherwise separates two main aquifers, is absent. Simulated water levels were linked to requirements of the MG8 plant community and Desmoulin’s whorl snail (Vertigo moulinsiana) for which the site is designated. Impacts on each are shown to differ spatially and in line with hydrological impacts. Differences in water level requirements for this vegetation community and single species highlight the need for separate management strategies in distinct areas of the wetland

Environmental water quantity projections under market-driven and sustainability-driven future scenarios in the Narew basin, Poland

The aim of this article is to assess the impact of four scenarios combining possible changes in climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide, land use and water use by 2050, on the specific set of ecologically relevant flow regime indicators that define environmental flow requirements in a semi-natural river basin in Poland. This aim is presented through a modelling case study using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Indicators show both positive and negative responses to future changes. Warm projections from the IPSL-CM4 global climate model combined with sustainable land- and water-use projections (SuE) produce the most negative changes, while warm and wet projections from the MIROC3.2 model combined with market-driven projections (EcF) gave the most positive changes. Climate change overshadows land- and water-use change in terms of the magnitude of projected flow alterations. The future of environmental water quantity is brighter under the market-driven rather than the sustainability-driven scenario, which shows that sustainability for terrestrial ecosystems (e.g. more forests and grasslands) can be at variance with sustainability for riverine and riparian ecosystems (requiring sufficient amount and proper timing of river flows)

Use of hydraulic rating to set environmental flows in the Zhangxi River, China

Ningbo city, China, is a rapidly growing residential and industrial centre, with a current population of 4 million. Its development has required a major water supply expansion programme providing 400,000 m3 of water per day from the upper reaches of the Zhangxi River by means of a cascade of reservoirs. Water resources management is achieved through operation of two major reservoirs, Jiaokou (75 million m3) and Zhougongzhai (93 million m3). Water is released from the reservoirs, via turbines (generating hydropower), for local industry, irrigated agriculture and public supply along the lower reaches of the River and to maintain the river ecosystem. Surveys of local residents along the Zhangxi River showed its important role in aspects of life, social activity, culture and leisure. Analysis of ecological monitoring data demonstrated the diverse nature of fish, plants and invertebrates within the river. Some elements of the ecosystem have a high local economic value to local people. This paper reports an assessment of the environmental flow needed to support key species in the river ecosystem. It employs hydraulic ratings to define sections of the river where flow velocity reaches 0.5 ms-1, required to stimulate spawning of the moonlight fish, an economically important and indicator species in the river. In two out of 6 cross-sections studied, flow releases from the reservoirs meet the needs of fish. The reservoirs reduce flood flows, which may lead to a loss of deep pools that are essential for the fish to survive during winter month

Modelling groundwater/surface-water interaction in a managed riparian chalk valley wetland

Understanding hydrological processes in wetlands may be complicated by management practices and complex groundwater/surface water interactions. This is especially true for wetlands underlain by permeable geology, such as chalk. In this study, the physically based, distributed model MIKE SHE is used to simulate hydrological processes at the Centre for Ecology and Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory, Boxford, Berkshire, UK. This comprises a 10-ha lowland, chalk valley bottom, riparian wetland designated for its conservation value and scientific interest. Channel management and a compound geology exert important, but to date not completely understood, influences upon hydrological conditions. Model calibration and validation were based upon comparisons of observed and simulated groundwater heads and channel stages over an equally split 20-month period. Model results are generally consistent with field observations and include short-term responses to events as well as longer-term seasonal trends. An intrinsic difficulty in representing compressible, anisotropic soils limited otherwise excellent performance in some areas. Hydrological processes in the wetland are dominated by the interaction between groundwater and surface water. Channel stage provides head boundaries for broad water levels across the wetland, whilst areas of groundwater upwelling control discrete head elevations. A relic surface drainage network confines flooding extents and routes seepage to the main channels. In-channel macrophyte growth and its management have an acute effect on water levels and the proportional contribution of groundwater and surface water. The implications of model results for management of conservation species and their associated habitats are discusse

Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe

Floods and droughts, two opposite natural components of streamflow regimes, are known to regulate population size and species diversity. Quantifiable measures of these disturbances and their subsequent ecological responses are needed to synthesize the knowledge on flow–ecosystem relationships. This study for the first time combines the systematic review approach used to collect evidence on the ecological responses to floods and droughts in Europe with the statistical methods used to quantify the extreme events severity. Out of 854 publications identified in literature search, 54 papers were retained after screening and eligibility checks, providing in total 82 case studies with unique extreme event—ecological response associations for which data were extracted. In this way, a database with metadata of case studies that can be explored with respect to various factors was constructed. This study pinpointed the research gaps where little evidence could be synthesized, for example, drought event studies and fish studies. It was demonstrated that in many cases the studied metrics (abundance, density, richness, and diversity) showed statistically significant decreases after or during the event occurrence. The responses in invertebrate density and richness were in general more negative than the corresponding responses in fish. Biota resistance to floods was found to be lower than the resistance to droughts. The severity of extreme events was not found to be an important factor influencing ecological metrics, although this analysis was often hampered by insufficient number of case studies. Conceivably, other factors could mask any existing relationships between disturbance severity and biotic response

Projecting impacts of climate change on habitat availability in a macrophyte dominated chalk river

Climate change will impact fluvial ecosystems through changes in the flow regime. Physical habitat is an established measure of a river's ecological status when assessing changes to flow. Yet, it requires extensive datasets, is site specific, and does not account for dynamic processes; shortcomings that the use of hydrological and hydraulic models may alleviate. Here, simulated flows along a 600 m reach of the River Lambourn, Boxford, UK, were extracted from the 1D MIKE 11 hydraulic component of an integrated MIKE SHE model of the Centre for Ecology & Hydrology River Lambourn Observatory. In-channel seasonal macrophyte growth and management through cutting alter water levels, represented in the hydraulic model by manipulating channel bed roughness (Manning's n). Assessment of climate change used outputs from the UK Climate Projections 2009 ensemble of global climate models for the 2080s. River discharge outputs were disaggregated to provide velocity and depth profiles across 41 cross sections along the reach. These were integrated with habitat suitability criteria for brown trout (Salmo trutta) to generate a measure of available physical habitat. The influence of macrophyte growth caused the habitat-discharge relationship to be unusable in evaluating the sensitivity of brown trout to flow changes. Instead, projected time series were used to show an overall reduction in habitat availability, more for adult than juvenile trout. Results highlighted the impact of weed cutting, and its potential role in mitigating both flood risk and the ecological impacts of climate change. The use of a hydraulic model to assess physical habitat availability has worldwide applicability

Responses of fish and invertebrates to floods and droughts in Europe

Floods and droughts, two opposite natural components of streamflow regimes, are known to regulate population size and species diversity. Quantifiable measures of these disturbances and their subsequent ecological responses are needed to synthesize the knowledge on flow–ecosystem relationships. This study for the first time combines the systematic review approach used to collect evidence on the ecological responses to floods and droughts in Europe with the statistical methods used to quantify the extreme events severity. Out of 854 publications identified in literature search, 54 papers were retained after screening and eligibility checks, providing in total 82 case studies with unique extreme event—ecological response associations for which data were extracted. In this way, a database with metadata of case studies that can be explored with respect to various factors was constructed. This study pinpointed the research gaps where little evidence could be synthesized, for example, drought event studies and fish studies. It was demonstrated that in many cases the studied metrics (abundance, density, richness, and diversity) showed statistically significant decreases after or during the event occurrence. The responses in invertebrate density and richness were in general more negative than the corresponding responses in fish. Biota resistance to floods was found to be lower than the resistance to droughts. The severity of extreme events was not found to be an important factor influencing ecological metrics, although this analysis was often hampered by insufficient number of case studies. Conceivably, other factors could mask any existing relationships between disturbance severity and biotic response